Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 59.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Bahia Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Jerônimo Rodrigues has a 59.5% chance of retaining the governorship of Bahia in 2026, according to prediction markets, with the race close to a coin flip. A runoff, if needed, would follow on October 25.
59.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
Updated · Volume $151.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 59.5% | -2.0 |
| Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 38.0% | +1.0 |
| Will Rui Costa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kleber Rosa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bruno Soares Reis win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will José Carlos Aleluia win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 20 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 1 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The contest is finely balanced between Jerônimo Rodrigues and ACM Neto, while the remaining candidates are long shots.
Context
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 54.0% to 69.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 54.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 53.0% to 64.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 40.5% to 52.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 47.5% to 61.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 54.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 65.0% to 56.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 51.0% to 65.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 51.0% to 71.0% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Over the period, the market's estimate has swung between 33.5% and 69.0%. The probability now sits near the midpoint, with neither candidate establishing a lasting lead. The market resolves to the candidate who wins the election, as confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting or, if ambiguous, by the official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Should no result be determined by June 30, 2027, the contract settles to 'Other'. The formal conditions that could move the probability are the two voting dates: October 4, 2026, for the first round, and October 25 for a runoff if no candidate secures a majority. The hard deadline of June 30, 2027, also acts as a resolution backstop.
FAQ
What happens if no candidate wins a majority in the first round?
A runoff election is held on October 25, 2026, between the top two candidates.
How is the election result determined for the market?
It relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, it uses the official results published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
What if the result is not known by the deadline?
If no result is known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Are interim or placeholder governors considered?
No, only the winner of the scheduled election counts. Temporary appointments do not affect the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice