Berlin State Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections at 68.5%.
68.5%+5.0 pts 24h
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Updated · Volume $3.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 68.5% | +5.0 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 21.5% | +1.0 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 7.5% | -1.1 |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 2.9% | -0.2 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.6% | -0.3 |
| Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.9% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $3.6M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections, is priced at 68.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice