Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 30.5% to 45.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Last dance? Inside Lula’s strategy to win a fourth presidency in Brazil — Al Jazeera
Who will come third in Brazil's presidential first round?
Renan Santos has a 55.4% chance of finishing third in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, according to a prediction market with a wide field of candidates.
55.4%+1.7 pts 24h
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Updated · Volume $1.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 55.4% | +1.7 |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 36.5% | -2.5 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 8.5% | +4.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1.2% | -0.4 |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.7% | -0.1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Will Pablo Marçal finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tereza Cristina finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Helder Barbalho finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will another person finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Renan Santos is close to a coin flip to take third place, while Ronaldo Caiado has an outside chance and the remaining field are long shots.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 52.8% — a 7.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 62.4% to 50.4% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 25.6% to 52.7% — a 27.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 23.1% to 42.2% — a 19.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 44.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 41.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 44.0% to 36.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 50.5% to 39.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 57.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election — Al Jazeera
Renan Santos is close to a coin flip to secure third place, with contracts trading at 55.4%, having ranged between 0.0% and 65.0%. Over the past day the probability moved by +1.7 pts. This market resolves based on the outcome of the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The candidate finishing third by number of valid votes wins the contract. Ties are broken alphabetically by last name. If no definitive result is known by the deadline of Oct 4, 2026, the market settles as 'Other'. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting if necessary to the official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The only formal triggers that could shift the market are the release of official election results by the TSE and the resolution cutoff date of Oct 4, 2026. Until results are published, the probability reflects trading sentiment rather than a guaranteed outcome.
FAQ
How does the market determine the third-place finisher?
Candidates are ranked by valid votes received in the first round. Ties are broken alphabetically by last name.
What official source is used for the result?
The market first looks for a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
What happens if the election result is delayed or disputed?
The market has a firm resolution deadline of Oct 4, 2026. If no definitive third-place finisher is established by then, the contract settles as 'Other'.
Are there other candidates besides Renan Santos?
Yes, the market includes several candidates, but only Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado have measurable probabilities according to the current betting odds.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice