Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will another person win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election at 50.0%.
50.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will another person win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Updated · Volume $2.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will another person win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | 40.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | 28.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | 20.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | 8.6% | -1.8 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | 2.6% | +0.3 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $2.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will another person win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, is priced at 50.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice