CA-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
The Democratic Party is near-certain to retain California's 1st congressional district, with markets pricing their chances at 97.0%. The election is on Nov 3, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $35.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat? | 97.0% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat? | 1.9% | +0.2 |
| Will B win the CA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic victory is the clear expectation; all other scenarios are considered long shots.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win in CA-01 has held steady at a high level, currently at 97.0%. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible election reporting, with any ambiguity settled by official Federal Election Commission results. The most significant date ahead is the election itself, on Nov 3, 2026, when votes are cast and counted. The market is poised to pay out once credible reporting confirms a winner—or, if the result is unclear, when the FEC releases its official tally.
FAQ
How is a candidate's party determined?
By their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, the candidate is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time the House elections are called.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves once a consensus of credible election reporting points to a winner. If the outcome is ambiguous, resolution waits for the Federal Election Commission's official results.
What if an independent candidate caucuses with a major party?
They are treated as a member of that party for the purpose of this market, based on the most recent caucus intent at the time all House elections are conclusively called.
Who certifies the result?
The market defers to credible reporting first. If that proves unclear, the official results from the United States Federal Election Commission become the sole source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice