CA-06 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the Democratic Party's chances of retaining the CA-06 House seat at 96.0%, making them near-certain to win. Voters go to the polls on Nov 4, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?
Updated · Volume $50.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? | 96.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is the clear frontrunner, and all other party scenarios are priced as long shots.
Context
The headline probability currently stands at 96.0%, unchanged from its recent range. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none is listed, it is based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission’s official results serving as the tiebreaker in cases of ambiguity. The probability will converge to 0 or 100 as the election on Nov 4, 2026 approaches and the outcome is conclusively reported. No other scheduled events are specified to directly trigger resolution. Market movements reflect changes in the perceived certainty of the outcome based on publicly available information.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
By the ballot-listed party of the winning candidate, or if unaffiliated, the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with.
When does the market resolve?
After the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, once the House races are conclusively called by credible reporting.
What happens if the candidate is not a Democrat or Republican?
If the candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, their party is assigned based on their most recent caucus intent.
Who confirms the official result?
A consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission’s official results are used.
Is there a deadline for resolution?
The market resolves when the election is conclusively called; no fixed deadline beyond that.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice