CA-12 House Election: Live Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party winning California's 12th congressional district at 96.0% for the November 3, 2026 midterm election.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat?
Updated · Volume $44.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat? | 96.0% | -1.9 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is near-certain to win the seat; all other outcomes are priced as long shots.
Context
The headline probability that the Democratic Party wins CA-12 now stands at 96.0%. Total volume is $44.6K. (Data updated 10 min ago.)
The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate for the CA-12 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if none, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, it falls back to the official results from the Federal Election Commission. The resolution date is Nov 4, 2026, when voters go to the polls. The market will settle once the election is called by a consensus of credible reporting or the FEC releases official results.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 House seat, determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or most recent caucus intent. The outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the FEC as a fallback.
What if a candidate doesn't have a party on the ballot?
Then the candidate's party is the one with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the election is called.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the 2026 midterm election on November 3, 2026, once the result for CA-12 is conclusively called by credible reporting or official FEC results are available.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is a consensus of credible reporting. If the result is ambiguous, the market turns to the official Federal Election Commission records.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice