CA-15 House Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability
The Democratic Party is near-certain to win the CA-15 House seat, with markets pricing a 95.5% probability. All other outcomes remain remote.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?
Updated · Volume $122.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.4% | -0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is the overwhelming favorite, with all other outcomes priced as remote possibilities.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win currently sits at 95.5%, as of 3 min ago. Total volume sits at $122.4K. The market has shown little appetite for the alternative outcomes, keeping the line anchored near its peak. The market resolves once the 2026 midterm election for California’s 15th congressional district is called. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation at the time the election is conclusively decided by reporting sources. A candidate without a listed affiliation is assigned to the party they most recently signaled an intent to caucus with. In case of conflicting reports, the official Federal Election Commission tally serves as the final arbiter. The election day—Nov 3, 2026—is the pivotal moment, as the market resolves upon a clear call of the winner. Ahead of that, any developments that affect perceptions of the race could shift the probability. The consensus of credible reporting—or the FEC if needed—will settle the contract.
FAQ
What event does this market cover?
It covers the party affiliation of the winning candidate for California's 15th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
How is the winning party determined?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation at the time credible reporting calls the election. If not listed, it uses the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with.
What happens if the election result is ambiguous or disputed?
If there is disagreement among news reports, the market resolves using the Federal Election Commission's official results.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves once the 2026 midterm election for that seat is conclusively called by a consensus of credible reporting.
Who provides the official result for this market?
The market relies on credible news reporting, but in ambiguous cases, it defaults to the FEC's official tally.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice