Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.0% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Around this time: California lawmaker overcomes pro-Israel spending to win special election — Al Jazeera
CA-16 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
The Democratic Party is near-certain to retain the CA-16 House seat in the 2026 midterms, with markets pricing its chance at 96.4%. The election takes place on November 3, 2026.
96.4%-0.3 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?
Updated · Volume $107.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat? | 96.4% | -0.3 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-16 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic win is near-certain at 96.4%. A Republican victory is considered unlikely, while all other outcomes remain long shots.
Context
The market-implied probability of a Democratic victory has not been static. Data last updated 10 min ago. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate for California’s 16th congressional district. If a consensus of credible reporting is clear, that result is used; otherwise, the official results from the Federal Election Commission become the final arbiter. A candidate’s party comes from their ballot designation, or—if none is listed—from the party with which they most recently declared an intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called by the resolution sources. The market’s resolution date is Nov 4, 2026, and it will settle once the election is decided and the results are confirmed by the prescribed sources. Events prior to that date, including candidate announcements or other election-related news, may influence the market’s assessment.
FAQ
When is the CA-16 election?
The election is part of the 2026 midterms, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How is the winning candidate’s party determined?
The party is taken from the candidate’s ballot-listed affiliation. If no party appears on the ballot, the market uses the party the candidate most recently said they would caucus with at the time all House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if a third-party candidate wins?
A win by a third-party or independent candidate would resolve as a non-Democratic outcome, grouped with the Republican and other scenarios.
What sources are used for resolution?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission.
Is the market live until the election?
The market remains active until the outcome is known and the market resolves according to its rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice