CA-18 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Democratic Party a 97.4% chance of holding California's 18th congressional district in the 2026 midterms, based on data from 3 min ago.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?
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| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat? | 97.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-18 House seat? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-18 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is the clear favorite, with all other outcomes trading at long-shot odds.
Context
The market-implied probability of a Democratic win stands at 97.4%. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate for the CA-18 House seat in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none is listed, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The result is called based on a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting to the Federal Election Commission's official tally when ambiguity persists. Settlement hinges on the election outcome itself. The formal timeline includes the vote on Nov 3, 2026 and subsequent confirmation by news reports or the FEC. No other events alter the contract's terms.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner's party?
It uses the party listed on the ballot. If no party appears, it defaults to the party with which the candidate most recently indicated a caucus intent.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once credible reporting establishes a winner or the FEC issues official results.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If the reporting is inconclusive, the market settles on the FEC's official tally.
Are third-party or independent candidates treated separately?
No—if their ballot lacks a major party label, they are assigned to either Democrats or Republicans based on their most recent caucus intent.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice