CA-23 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican candidate a 93.2% chance to hold California's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 midterms, a strongly favored advantage. Resolution depends on the official election result as reported by a consensus of credible outlets, with the FEC as the fallback.
Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?
Updated · Volume $61.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat? | 93.2% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-23 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-23 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-23 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-23 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-23 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-23 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is strongly favored to win, the Democratic candidate has an outside chance, and the remaining outcomes are effectively ruled out.
Context
The market's current price is 93.2%. The contract settles according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or, if none, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting; in the event of ambiguity, it defaults to the FEC's official results. The main formal event driving the probability is the November 3, 2026 election. The market is scheduled to resolve by Nov 4, 2026. All trading will cease once a winner is declared by the consensus of reports or the FEC.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections, once a consensus of credible reports declares the winner of CA-23, or based on FEC results if ambiguous.
How is a candidate's party determined?
By their ballot-listed affiliation; if none, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all House elections are called.
What if the winner is not a Republican or Democrat?
The market resolves to the winner's party regardless, though such outcomes are currently priced as very unlikely.
Does this market consider other elections?
No, it resolves solely on the CA-23 House election result as per the specified sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice