Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 98.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
CA-24 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party's chance of holding the CA-24 House seat at 97.7%, making them near-certain to win in the 2026 midterms.
97.7%+0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-24 House seat?
Updated · Volume $50.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-24 House seat? | 97.7% | +0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-24 House seat? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic victory scenario is near-certain, while all other possibilities—including a Republican win or any third-party outcome—are long shots.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 97.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability assigned to a Democratic victory now stands at 97.7%. In the last day, the figure shifted by +0.0 pts. Trading volume totals $50.9K. The market resolves to the party that wins the seat in the 2026 U.S. midterm election. A candidate's party is taken from their ballot listing or, if unaffiliated there, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if that remains ambiguous, the official Federal Election Commission results serve as the final arbiter. The contract's price is sensitive to any development that alters the perceived odds of the Democratic candidate prevailing in California's 24th district. Because the resolution source is the consensus of credible reporting—with the FEC as a backstop—new polling, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in the national political environment can ripple through the market. Absent a formal event, the price drifts with the flow of information until the vote itself on Nov 3, 2026.
FAQ
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the official FEC results are used.
What determines a candidate's party for this market?
The party is determined by the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If no affiliation is listed, it is based on the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus when the elections are called.
When will the market be settled?
Settlement occurs after the 2026 midterm elections, once the outcome is conclusively called by the resolution sources. The election itself is on November 3, 2026, but the exact settlement date depends on how quickly a consensus emerges.
What if the election result is disputed or delayed?
If credible reporting does not yield a clear consensus, the market waits for the official results from the Federal Election Commission. Only the FEC's determination—or an unambiguous consensus—triggers resolution.
Can the market resolve before Election Day?
No. The market only resolves based on the actual election result, not on pre-election events such as polls or candidate dropouts.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice