CA-26 House Election: Latest Odds & Probability
As of 3 min ago, prediction markets price a Democratic win in California's 26th congressional district at 94.5%, making the party strongly favored to hold the seat in the 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-26 House seat?
Updated · Volume $32.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-26 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-26 House seat? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is strongly favored to hold the seat; all other outcomes remain long shots.
Context
The probability has traded at 94.5% recently. The market will settle according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 seat. A candidate's party is determined first by their ballot-listed affiliation; if that is absent, it is based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, deferring to the official Federal Election Commission results if the reporting is ambiguous. The key date is Nov 3, 2026, when voters cast their ballots. The market will then resolve based on the outcome and the rules described above.
FAQ
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once the winner of CA-26 is confirmed.
How is a candidate's party determined?
By their ballot-listed affiliation, or if none is listed, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What if the result is disputed?
The market first looks for a consensus of credible reporting. If the outcome remains ambiguous, it falls back to the official FEC results.
Does this cover all possible candidates?
Yes, the market includes any candidate who could win the seat, regardless of party or independent status.
What is the election for?
It is for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in California's 26th congressional district in the 2026 midterms.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice