Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
CA-28 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
The chance of a Democratic victory in CA-28 stands at 97.8%, with traders treating the seat as a safe hold for the party ahead of the 2026 midterm election.
97.8%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?
Updated · Volume $141.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat? | 97.8% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-28 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-28 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-28 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-28 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-28 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-28 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is near-certain to win the seat, with all other outcomes trading as long shots.
Context
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The market for the CA-28 House seat has consistently pointed to a Democratic win, with the probability currently at 97.8%. The 24-hour change is 0.0 pts. The contract settles based on the party of the winning candidate in California's 28th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if unlisted, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting; if unclear, the market looks to official results from the Federal Election Commission. Formal conditions that could move the probability include any official changes to candidate party affiliations before the polls close and the eventual release of results by credible news organizations or the FEC. The election itself takes place on Nov 3, 2026.
FAQ
How is a candidate’s party determined for this market?
The market uses the party listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, it uses the party the candidate most recently said they would caucus with at the time the election is called.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it relies on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of the CA-28 seat is determined according to the contract’s rules.
Can an independent candidate win this market?
An independent candidate would be assigned to either the Democratic or Republican outcome based on which party they intend to caucus with, as per the market rules.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is a consensus of credible reporting; if that is not clear, the official results reported by the FEC are used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice