CA-29 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party at 96.8% to win California's 29th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat?
Updated · Volume $30.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat? | 96.8% | +0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-29 House seat? | 3.5% | +0.3 |
| Will B win the CA-29 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-29 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-29 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-29 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-29 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-29 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is the overwhelming favorite; all other outcomes are priced as long shots.
Context
The Democratic candidate’s price sits at 96.8%. Trading volume is $30.7K. The line changed by +0.0 pts in the past day
This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the seat in California's 29th congressional district in the U.S. House during the 2026 midterm elections, to be held on Nov 3, 2026. Party affiliation is taken from the ballot listing; if no party is listed, the candidate’s expressed caucus intent determines the side. The outcome is settled by a consensus of credible reporting, or if reports conflict, by the official results from the Federal Election Commission. The election itself—and the subsequent call of the winner—is the main event that will drive the probability. Until race-calling, the market may shift on any credible reporting that suggests a different outcome. The final settlement relies on the specified resolution sources, and any ambiguity would trigger the FEC fallback.
FAQ
When will this market resolve?
After the CA-29 House race in the 2026 midterm elections is conclusively called by credible reporting, or if ambiguous, when the Federal Election Commission releases official results.
How is the winning party determined?
Based on the candidate’s ballot-listed party affiliation, or if none is listed, their most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party.
What if a third-party candidate wins?
The market resolution rules account for candidates not affiliated as Democrat or Republican; such outcomes are among the scenarios priced at negligible levels.
What sources are used for resolution?
A consensus of credible reporting; if there are conflicting reports, the official Federal Election Commission results are used.
What if the election is delayed?
The market resolves based on actual results whenever they occur; the description does not provide a deadline beyond being conclusively called.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice