CA-35 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic hold in California's 35th congressional district at 94.5%, making it strongly favored to win in the 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-35 House seat?
Updated · Volume $36.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-35 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-35 House seat? | 2.8% | +0.4 |
| Will another party win the CA-35 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-35 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-35 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-35 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-35 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-35 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democrats are strongly favored to retain the seat, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The contract for Democrats to win has settled at 94.5% as of 7 min ago. This market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. For a candidate without a ballot affiliation to a major party, the party is based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus at that point. Resolution rests on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results as the fallback if needed. The number will shift only in response to changes in the market's assessment, but the formal settling event is the resolution of the 2026 House election. The scheduled date is Nov 3, 2026, and the outcome depends on consensus reporting, with the FEC as the final authority.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner's party?
It uses the ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the most recently expressed caucus intent at the time the House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting to the FEC's official results if necessary.
When will this market resolve?
Shortly after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once the outcome is called.
Does this market cover the primary elections?
No, it focuses on the general election for the CA-35 House seat.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice