Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.7% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
CA-44 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a Democratic victory for the CA-44 congressional district at 97.8%, making it near-certain. The election will be held on November 3, 2026.
97.8%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-44 House seat?
Updated · Volume $46.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-44 House seat? | 97.8% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-44 House seat? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-44 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-44 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-44 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-44 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-44 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-44 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic outcome is near-certain; all other possibilities are long shots.
Context
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.9% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
The market currently prices a Democratic hold at 97.8%. In the past 24 hours, the probability shifted by -0.1 pts. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 U.S. House election for California's 44th district, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation or, absent that, by the most recently expressed caucus intent at the time the election is conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to the official results from the Federal Election Commission if needed. The election on November 3, 2026 determines the winner. The market expires on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is based on consensus reporting, with the Federal Election Commission providing the definitive fallback.
FAQ
What determines the winning party?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 seat in the 2026 U.S. House election. The party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, by the candidate's most recently expressed caucus intent at the time the race is conclusively called.
How is the election result confirmed?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If the result is ambiguous, the official results from the Federal Election Commission are used.
When does the market settle?
It settles after the midterm election on November 3, 2026, once the winner is clearly established.
Can the market resolve to a non-major party?
The market resolves based on the recorded party affiliation of the winner. If a candidate has no ballot-listed party, their most recently expressed caucus intent determines the party. This means the outcome could be Democratic, Republican, or potentially another party consistent with these criteria.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice