CA-50 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a Democratic victory in California’s 50th congressional district at 96.2%. The contract settles based on the party of the winner in the November 3, 2026 midterm election.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-50 House seat?
Updated · Volume $64.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-50 House seat? | 96.2% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-50 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-50 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-50 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-50 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-50 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-50 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-50 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic hold scenario is near-certain, while all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
As of 10 min ago, the contract for a Democratic hold trades at 96.2%. The position has been near-certain throughout the observed period,
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation; if no party is listed, it reflects the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or, if ambiguous, on official Federal Election Commission results. The probability can shift with developments like candidate announcements or polling, but the only formal trigger for settlement is the election itself on Nov 3, 2026. Until then, the number reflects market expectations, not a guarantee of the result.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the party of the winning candidate in the CA-50 House race, based on ballot affiliation or—if none—the party they intended to caucus with.
What counts as the official result?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If outcomes are ambiguous, it defaults to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the election take place?
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
What if the election is delayed or disputed?
The market’s resolution rules provide a mechanism for such scenarios; it ultimately resolves based on the U.S. government’s official certification.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice