CA-51 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic hold in California's 51st district at 95.5% for the 2026 midterms. The outcome is near-certain.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-51 House seat?
Updated · Volume $34.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-51 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-51 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-51 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-51 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-51 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-51 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-51 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-51 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic victory is near-certain, while all other outcomes are seen as long shots.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win currently stands at 95.5%, It has shifted 0.0 pts in the past day
The market resolves to the party of the winner in California's 51st congressional district in the U.S. House election on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is first determined by their ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate lacks a ballot party designation, their party is assigned based on the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if the result is ambiguous, the market falls back on official Federal Election Commission data. The number could shift around the election date, Nov 3, 2026, as polling, candidate announcements, and campaign developments emerge. Final resolution hinges on the official call of the race, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the authoritative backup source.
FAQ
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, when the winner of the CA-51 House seat is conclusively called by credible reporting or, if needed, the Federal Election Commission.
How is a candidate's party determined?
A candidate's party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed on the ballot, the party is based on the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
In case of ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is a consensus of credible reporting; the Federal Election Commission serves as the backup.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice