CA-52 House Election Winner — Live Probability
Markets price a Democratic victory in California's 52nd congressional district at 95.9% heading into the 2026 midterms, a level that leaves the outcome near-certain.
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat?
Updated · Volume $48.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat? | 95.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CA-52 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CA-52 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CA-52 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CA-52 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the CA-52 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CA-52 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic win is the dominant scenario; the remaining outcomes are collectively unlikely.
Context
The probability now stands at 95.9%, after trading over the period. Volume reached $48.8K. Data updated 11 min ago. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if none is listed, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, it defers to the official Federal Election Commission results. The key formal condition is the election itself, scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. Until then, the number could respond to any credible reporting that shifts the consensus on the likely outcome, but the contract's settlement hinges solely on the final result as confirmed by the resolution sources.
FAQ
How is a candidate’s party determined?
It is based on their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party they most recently stated they would caucus with.
What happens if the winner is an independent?
They are assigned to the party they expressed intent to caucus with; absent such a statement, the market resolves according to that affiliation.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once a consensus of credible reporting confirms the winner.
What are the resolution sources?
Primarily a consensus of credible reporting; if unclear, it uses official Federal Election Commission results.
Can the market resolve before Election Day?
No, it only resolves after the election result is known.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice