California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner Odds

Traders have adjusted Fiona Ma’s likelihood over time. The probability now sits at 94.5%. Data updated 10 min ago. This market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 election, set for November 3, 2026. If no winner is confirmed by July 31, 2027, the contract settles as 'Other'. Resolution depends on race calls by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market pays out once all three outlets agree on the same candidate. If they do not, the outcome rests on the official certification. The first anchor is the election itself, scheduled for Nov 3, 2026; the confirmation deadline of July 31, 2027, is the second. The need for all three media sources to align means that any divergence in their projections can delay settlement, adding a procedural dimension to the market’s risk assessment.