Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 41.5% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Odds & Probability
Markets consider a full repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions unlikely, with the 'Yes' outcome at 41.0% as of 10 min ago.
41.0%-1.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $72.2K
The market heavily favors the cap remaining in place, leaving a repeal as an outside chance.
Context
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 22.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 41.0%. In the past 24 hours, the shift was -1.5 pts. The market has ranged from 14.5% to 47.0%. Trading volume stands at $72.2K. For the 'Yes' outcome to pay out, the cap on gambling loss deductions—introduced through the 2025 'Big Beautiful Bill'—must be completely removed by the deadline. A repeal means no cap at all, allowing full deductibility. Any change short of that, such as raising the limit or delaying its start, does not qualify. The result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. The main condition is that a full repeal occurs by the deadline. The resolution date is Jan 1, 2027. Legislative action that meets the strict definition would shift the probability, while incremental changes would not. The consensus reporting mechanism ensures that only a genuine repeal triggers a 'Yes'.
FAQ
What counts as a repeal of the cap?
The cap must be entirely removed so that no limit applies to gambling loss deductions. Any change that leaves a cap in place—even a higher one—does not qualify.
What if lawmakers raise the cap instead of removing it?
That would not resolve the market to 'Yes'. Only full repeal, with no cap at all, meets the market's terms.
How is the market resolved?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. Once it is clear whether a full repeal occurred by the deadline, the market settles accordingly.
When will the market resolve?
It will resolve shortly after the deadline, once reporting confirms the status of the cap.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice