Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 57.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Ceará Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price Ciro Gomes as the favored candidate to win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, with a probability of 57.5%. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
57.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Updated · Volume $250.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 57.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 41.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 20 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Ciro Gomes is priced as the clear favorite, while Elmano de Freitas holds a meaningful but not favored chance; all other candidates are considered long shots.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 62.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 62.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 52.5% to 61.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 53.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 65.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 71.0% to 60.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Market pricing assigns Ciro Gomes a probability of 57.5% as of 4 min ago. It has traded in a range from 50.5% to 69.0%. Over the past 24 hours, the price moved by +1.0 pts. The market resolves to the candidate who wins the election, ignoring any temporary or interim governors. The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, and a runoff will be held on October 25 if no candidate achieves a majority of valid votes. If the outcome is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles to 'Other'. Resolution relies on consensus from credible reporting, with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) as the final arbiter in case of ambiguity. The most significant dates that could shift the probability are the election rounds on October 4 and potentially October 25, 2026. Any official announcements from the TSE regarding the vote count or legal challenges may also cause movement. The ultimate settlement is tied to the TSE’s certified results.
FAQ
When does the election take place?
The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026. If no candidate receives a majority of valid votes, a runoff will be held on October 25, 2026.
How does this market determine the winner?
The market resolves to the candidate who wins the election, based on consensus from credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, it relies on the official results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the outcome is not publicly known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Are interim or temporary governors considered?
No. Only the candidate who wins the scheduled election counts. Temporary or placeholder appointments are ignored.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice