United Hearts Movement Wins Most Seats in CAR National Assembly Election
The prediction market on which party would win the most seats in the Central African Republic’s 2025 National Assembly election has resolved. The United Hearts Movement secured the largest bloc, settling at 100.0%.
Updated · Volume $132.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the National Movement of Independents win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Central African Democratic Rally win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | 0.0% | — |
The United Hearts Movement secured the most seats; the other named outcomes did not resolve in their favour.
Context
Throughout the trading period, the United Hearts Movement’s implied probability remained extremely elevated. It ranged from 91.3% to 100.0%, reflecting broad confidence that the party would retain its parliamentary dominance. Trading volume reached $132.1K. Resolution hinged on the party that controlled the most seats after the election, including any run-off rounds. The market relied on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official results from the National Elections Authority serving as the tie-breaker. Although the description allowed for settlement as late as December 31, 2026, the outcome became clear once the seat tally confirmed the United Hearts Movement’s lead.
FAQ
When did the market resolve?
The market resolved after the 2025 election, following any second-round votes, no later than December 31, 2026.
How was the winner determined?
The party that won the most seats in the National Assembly, according to credible reporting or official results from the National Elections Authority, was declared the winner.
What if there had been a tie?
In a tie, the party with the alphabetically first abbreviation would have won, but this contingency did not trigger.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice