Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Clacton by-election: Who Will Finish Second? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-electionEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $749.2K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 100.0% | — |
| Will someone else get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Rees Cowne get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Natasha Osben get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Luke Worley get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Giles Watling get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will John Stevens get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Matthew Bensilum get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Adham Alkhatip get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Pamela Walford get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kai Stephens get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Tony Mack get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Piers Corbyn get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Andrew Pemberton get second place in the Clacton by-election? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 92.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 77.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 81.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 68.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 55.5% to 61.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 55.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 64.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 73.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice