Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 8.5% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Will Sheinbaum Be Out as President by December 31? Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets give a 4.9% chance that Claudia Sheinbaum exits the Mexican presidency by December 31, a a long shot possibility. An announcement at any point before the market closes next year would be enough to settle it early.
4.9%-0.1 pts 24h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
Updated · Volume $286.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | 4.9% | -0.1 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “by December 31” contract is the main focus; the remaining outcome timeframes are priced as marginal tail risks.
Context
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 4.0% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded in a range from 3.1% to 9.1%, never pricing the exit above an outside chance. The market resolves to “Yes” if Sheinbaum announces her resignation or is otherwise removed before the official close at Jan 1, 2027. Any such announcement triggers an immediate settlement, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The outcome is determined by information from Sheinbaum herself, the Government of Mexico, or a consensus of credible reporting. Two dates matter: the headline December 31 cutoff and the market’s hard close at Jan 1, 2027. Any formal statement from the official sources before the latter would move the probability dramatically; quiet on all channels would likely keep it near current levels.
FAQ
What counts as Sheinbaum “out” as president?
Resignation, removal, or any cessation of her presidency for any length of time, per the market rules.
Does the resignation have to be effective by the deadline?
No; as soon as she announces it before the market closes, the contract resolves to “Yes,” even if the departure date is later.
What happens if there’s a temporary leave of absence?
Any interruption of her presidency—even a brief one—would trigger a “Yes” resolution, provided it happens before the market closes.
Who verifies the outcome?
The primary sources are Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, but the market also accepts a consensus of credible news reporting.
Is this market only about the December 31 date?
The headline contract focuses on whether she leaves by December 31; other timeframes exist but attract negligible trading interest.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice