Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Michigan Senate Democratic primary race remains too close to call as El-Sayed holds narrow lead – US politics live — The Guardian
Colorado Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic hold in the 2026 Colorado Senate race at 96.0%. The outcome is near-certain across all trading windows, with data updated 8 min ago.
96.0%+0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $48.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? | 96.0% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? | 3.0% | 0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Democrats are the clear frontrunner, while the remaining scenarios all represent low-probability outcomes.
Context
Probability for Democrats has ranged in the period observed. The market settles when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If the sources cannot agree, resolution will fall to the official certification. Any run-offs are included. The most immediate conditions that could shift the line are the election itself in 2026[[opt]], with a formal resolution date of Nov 3, 2026, and any updates from the designated news organizations as they call the race. With wide consensus expected, most movement will come closer to the vote.
FAQ
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the winner. If they do not agree, it waits for official certification.
Does a run-off count?
Yes, the market includes any run-offs that may occur.
Who determines the winner?
The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Their joint call or the official certification decides the outcome.
What candidates are covered?
The market currently covers the Democratic and Republican nominees. Third-party or independent candidates may be added later.
What if a candidate runs as an independent?
An independent candidate is not counted under Democrat or Republican, regardless of party affiliation.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice