CT-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic win in Connecticut's 4th District at 97.9%, ahead of the midterm vote on November 3, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $48.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat? | 97.9% | +0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat? | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| Will A win the CT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the CT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the CT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the CT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the CT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the CT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win scenario is the clear favorite, while all other possibilities are long shots.
Context
The contract has traded for the period and now sits at 97.9%. It has moved +0.0 pts over the past day. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation or, absent that, the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the election is conclusively called. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, it falls back to official results from the Federal Election Commission. Settlement is tied to the election on Nov 3, 2026. Any shifts in polling data, candidate entries or exits, or broader political developments could move the market price until then. The consensus of reporting is the primary arbiter, with the FEC as a backstop.
FAQ
What is this market about?
It reflects the party of the winning candidate in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How is a candidate's party determined?
By the party listed on the ballot or, if none, by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the elections are conclusively called.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources, which rely on a consensus of credible reporting.
What if the result is disputed?
The market defaults to a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguity persists, it uses official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice