Epstein Client List by July 31: Current Odds
Prediction markets put the chance that an Epstein client list surfaces by July 31 at 5.5%, an outcome that is unlikely.
Updated · Volume $4.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Epstein client list released by October 31? | 5.5% | +0.1 |
| Epstein client list released by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Epstein client list released by December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Epstein client list released in 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The July 31 deadline is the most likely of the listed outcomes, though it remains a remote tail, while the other three scenarios are even less probable.
Context
The price for the July deadline has traded between 1.1% and 21.5% over the period tracked, ending near its bottom as updated 11 min ago. Trading volume stands at $4.4M. The market’s broader resolution window extends to Jan 1, 2027, and later deadlines are priced even lower. For the market to resolve “Yes” on any of its outcomes, files that were not previously public and that relate to Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities must be made public by the target date. Those files must contain a list of individuals tied to Epstein’s crimes—what is commonly termed a client list. A qualifying document explicitly identifies people as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise implicated in those activities. Mere social proximity does not count. Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, contact books, address lists, or schedules are all excluded unless they come with clear contextual evidence linking the named individuals to criminal conduct. The resolution relies on the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What counts as an Epstein client list?
A document that explicitly names individuals as being connected to Epstein’s illegal activities, such as sex trafficking. Credible reporting or official context can confirm an otherwise ambiguous file qualifies. Simple travel records or social calendars are not enough.
When does this market resolve?
The overall market has a final deadline of Jan 1, 2027. The July 31 outcome resolves earlier if a qualifying release happens by that date; otherwise it settles after the deadline passes without such a release.
Who decides whether a release qualifies?
Resolution is based on the primary sources—the files themselves—along with a consensus of credible reporting. The market’s rules spell out what evidence is sufficient.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice