Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 2.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Federal Gas Tax Suspension: Market Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a federal gas tax suspension by November 2, 2026 at 2.2%, a long shot.
2.2%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?
Updated · Volume $38.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? | 2.2% | -0.1 |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—a suspension of the federal gas tax—draws the most attention; alternative possibilities are dismissed as long shots.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.3% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 17.0% to 5.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 15.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 11.0% to 25.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 19.5% to 9.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 22.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of a gas tax suspension has been trading at 2.2%. Over the period, it moved between 2.1% and 21.0%. The contract resolves to 'Yes' if a bill suspending the federal gasoline excise tax, even temporarily, passes both chambers and becomes law by the deadline. A bill that is signed, becomes law without signature while Congress remains in session, or survives a veto override qualifies. Pocket vetoes that expire do not. The official determination relies on Congress.gov and other federal sources, with credible reporting as a secondary reference. Resolution hinges on action by Nov 3, 2026. Progress or setbacks on legislation—committee votes, floor debates, veto threats—could push the probability up or down. Ultimately, the market settles based on whether Congress.gov confirms a suspension was enacted.
FAQ
What does this market measure?
It measures the probability that the federal gas tax will be suspended, at least temporarily, by the specified date, based on legislative action.
What counts as a suspension?
Any legislation that suspends the federal excise tax on gasoline, including joint resolutions, that passes Congress and is signed into law, or becomes law without signature, or via veto override.
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to 'Yes' if such legislation is passed and signed by the date. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
What sources determine the outcome?
The primary sources are Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official US government information, with a consensus of credible reporting used if needed.
What happens if a bill is vetoed?
If the president vetoes the bill and Congress does not override, it does not count. If Congress overrides the veto, it does count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice