FL-01 House Election Winner Odds
The Republican Party is near-certain to hold the FL-01 House seat, with markets pricing its chances at 95.5%. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $117.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat? | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Will D win the FL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the FL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the FL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the FL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the FL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the FL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is near-certain to hold the seat, while all other outcomes are seen as long shots.
Context
The probability assigned to a Republican win has moved over the observed period. Currently, the market stands at 95.5%. Trading volume has reached $117.8K. Data as of 7 min ago. The contract settles according to the party of the winning candidate in the FL-01 congressional district race at the 2026 U.S. midterms, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is based on their ballot listing; for those without a party label, it is determined by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible election reporting. If that consensus is unclear, the market defaults to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission. Any new information about the race—such as candidate announcements, polling, or national political shifts—could move the price. Ultimately, the contract resolves based on the actual election result, with final resolution expected after the midterms. The market will remain open until resolution around Nov 4, 2026.
FAQ
What determines which party a candidate belongs to?
A candidate's party is based on their ballot listing. If no party is listed, it is determined by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
How does the market settle?
It settles according to the party of the winner of the FL-01 House seat, as confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When is the election?
The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market looks to a consensus of credible reporting to determine the winner. If no consensus emerges, it uses the FEC's official results.
Can the market resolve to a party other than Republican?
Yes, if a candidate from another party wins, the market would resolve accordingly. However, such outcomes are considered long shots.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice