Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 82.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
FL-12 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
As of 14 min ago, markets give the Republican Party a 92.5% chance of holding Florida's 12th congressional district in the 2026 midterms.
92.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?
Updated · Volume $57.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the FL-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the FL-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the FL-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the FL-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the FL-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the FL-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored to retain the seat, while a Democratic win is considered an outside chance; all other outcomes are highly unlikely.
Context
The headline probability has ranged from 82.5% to 92.5% over the life of the contract. Over the last day, the probability has moved 0.0 pts. Trading volume has reached $57.3K. Resolution turns on the party of the winning candidate in Florida's 12th district, as reported by a consensus of credible news outlets following the November 3, 2026 election. If there is disagreement, the official results from the Federal Election Commission are used. A candidate's party is first determined by the affiliation listed on the ballot; if no such listing exists, the market uses the party the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 House races are called. The single fixed date is the election itself on Nov 3, 2026. Until then, developments such as candidate filings, primary results, or shifts in the district's political mood could influence the market's pricing, but the final settlement is mechanical: it follows the declared winner's party as described. Speculation about polling or funds raised does not alter the contract's payout — only the certified result matters.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate's party determined?
The market uses the party listed on the ballot for that candidate. If no party is listed, it defaults to the party the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus with upon the conclusion of the 2026 House elections.
What happens if the election result is disputed or unclear?
The market first seeks a consensus from credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, it resolves solely on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
Can a third-party or independent candidate win?
The market includes all possible outcomes, though historically such candidates face steep odds. If a non-major-party candidate wins, the resolution would follow the affiliation rules described.
When does the market settle?
Settlement occurs after the 2026 midterms are conclusively called, typically within days of the November 3 election date.
Is there early resolution if a candidate withdraws?
No. The contract only settles based on the final election results, not on earlier events.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice