FL-26 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
The Republican Party is strongly favored to hold Florida's 26th congressional district, with markets pricing its chances at 90.5%.
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?
Updated · Volume $65.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat? | 90.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the FL-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the FL-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the FL-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the FL-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the FL-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the FL-26 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican win dominates the field, while the Democratic pickup remains unlikely; every other scenario is a remote long shot.
Context
The contract has spent most of its life in one-sided territory. At the time of writing, it stands at 90.5% 10 min ago.. In the last 24 hours alone, it added 0.0 pts.. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district in the U.S. House election on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission’s official results serving as the fallback if any ambiguity arises. The market will settle after the election, with the formal resolution date set as Nov 3, 2026. The only condition that moves the needle is the actual election outcome—specifically, which party’s nominee wins the seat. No interim events have a direct bearing on the contract’s payoff, though shifts in polling or political developments can sway the odds ahead of the vote.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner of the FL-26 race?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting after the 2026 midterm elections. If reporting is ambiguous, the market falls back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
What if the winning candidate is an independent or third-party member?
The market resolves to the party with which the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus if no major-party affiliation is listed on the ballot. Ties or unusual cases are settled according to the market’s published rules.
When will the market resolve?
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Resolution occurs after the outcome is conclusively called by credible sources or the FEC, which may be days or weeks later if results are contested.
Does the market account for candidate withdrawals or primaries?
The contract settles solely on the general election winner’s party. Pre-election developments such as candidate dropouts affect trading prices but do not alter the final resolution criteria.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice