Florida Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican victory in the 2026 Florida Senate race at 92.5%, making it strongly favored. The market will settle once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $110.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | 7.5% | -0.5 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The remaining scenarios, including a Democratic win and other outcomes, are all considered unlikely by the market.
Context
The market's assessment of a Republican win currently stands at 92.5%, having moved within a range of 87.0% to 94.5%.. This market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election. The resolution source is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If they have not aligned, it resolves based on the official certification. The election is scheduled for. The resolution date is. The market will settle once the three designated news organizations call the race, or upon official certification if they disagree.
FAQ
What happens if the election goes to a run-off?
The market includes any run-offs and will resolve to the final winner as determined by the resolution sources.
What if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC do not all call the race for the same candidate?
In that case, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
How are independent or third-party candidates handled?
Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominees are treated separately. An independent candidate will not be included in the Democrat or Republican options regardless of any party affiliation.
When will this market resolve?
The market will resolve after the election, once the resolution sources have called the race or certification is complete. The exact timing depends on how quickly the results are determined.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice