Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.8% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Will France's United Left Primary Be Canceled?
Markets price the cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 92.1%, making it strongly favored. The primary, scheduled for October 11, is meant to pick a joint left-wing candidate for the 2027 presidential election.
92.1%-0.6 pts 24h
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
Updated · Volume $229.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? | 92.1% | -0.6 |
| Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.4% | -0.0 |
| Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder J be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder L be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder C be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder S be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder F be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder G be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder I be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder O be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder M be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder H be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder K be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder R be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder N be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder Q be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder P be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder E be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder D be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder T be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will any other individual be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The cancellation outcome dominates trading, with the eleven candidate-specific scenarios all seen as distant long shots.
Context
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 89.5% to 96.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
The probability that the primary will be scrapped has stayed near its current 92.1% level, with a range from 88.0% to 93.9% over the period tracked.. Total volume is $229.0K. The market resolves to 'Canceled' if organizers officially announce the primary will not happen, or if at least three of the four named parties—L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s—declare they won't participate. Postponement doesn't count. If no qualifying nominee emerges by March 31, 2027, the market settles as 'Other'. Resolution relies on consensus from credible reporting, with official party announcements as the fallback in unclear cases. Formal triggers for a shift in odds include any official statement from the participating parties or the primary's organizers. The scheduled date of October 11, 2026, and the March 31, 2027 deadline are the two key milestones. As long as the structure stands and no party formally withdraws, the number is unlikely to move far.
FAQ
What would cause the primary to be considered canceled?
The market resolves to 'Canceled' if the organizers officially announce it won't occur, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s state they will not take part.
Does a postponement count as cancellation?
No. A rescheduling of the October 11, 2026, primary date would not trigger a 'Canceled' resolution; only an outright cancellation or the withdrawal of three named parties qualifies.
What happens if no joint candidate is selected by the deadline?
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Who decides the outcome in case of ambiguity?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that is unclear, official announcements from the primary organizers or the participating parties become the sole source.
Would a replacement of the nominee after the primary change the result?
No. Once the market resolves to a candidate, any subsequent replacement before the presidential election does not alter the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice