French Presidential Election: 2026 Announcement Odds

The contract tracking Gabriel Attal’s expected announcement trades at 100.0%, after ranging from 34.5% to 73.0%. Other contracts show similar conviction for Le Pen and Mélenchon, while probabilities diverge for the remaining figures. For each individual, the market resolves to Yes if they publicly announce a 2027 presidential run by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Mere expressions of interest or media speculation are insufficient; only an explicit declaration—whether from the candidate directly or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting—triggers a Yes outcome. Formal ballot registration is not required. The sole deadline is the end of 2026 (Apr 23, 2027); any public declaration before that cutoff would resolve the relevant contract to Yes. The biggest potential mover would be an unexpected early announcement by one of the figures currently seen as coin flips, such as Dominique de Villepin or Bernard Cazeneuve. The resolution relies on official statements or corroborating reporting, so non-committal remarks do not shift the odds.