French Presidential Election: 2026 Announcement Odds
Markets price Gabriel Attal’s odds of announcing a 2027 presidential bid in 2026 at 100.0%, a near-certain outcome. At the same time, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are also seen as all but certain to declare before December 31, 2026.
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Updated · Volume $81.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 71.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 61.5% | 0.0 |
| Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 56.5% | -1.5 |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 54.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 9.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 8.4% | -2.3 |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 8.0% | -2.5 |
| Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 7.6% | +0.9 |
| Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 6.4% | +1.2 |
| Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 5.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 5.0% | +0.1 |
| Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 3.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 1.5% | -0.3 |
Beyond Attal, markets see Le Pen and Mélenchon as near-certain to announce, while Glucksmann and Zemmour hold strong to favored odds; the remaining figures span from coin flips to unlikely.
Context
The contract tracking Gabriel Attal’s expected announcement trades at 100.0%, after ranging from 45.0% to 73.0%. Other contracts show similar conviction for Le Pen and Mélenchon, while probabilities diverge for the remaining figures. For each individual, the market resolves to Yes if they publicly announce a 2027 presidential run by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Mere expressions of interest or media speculation are insufficient; only an explicit declaration—whether from the candidate directly or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting—triggers a Yes outcome. Formal ballot registration is not required. The sole deadline is the end of 2026 (Apr 23, 2027); any public declaration before that cutoff would resolve the relevant contract to Yes. The biggest potential mover would be an unexpected early announcement by one of the figures currently seen as coin flips, such as Dominique de Villepin or Bernard Cazeneuve. The resolution relies on official statements or corroborating reporting, so non-committal remarks do not shift the odds.
FAQ
What qualifies as an official announcement for this market?
The listed individual must publicly state they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election. Indicating they are considering a run, or media speculation, is not sufficient.
Does a candidate need to formally file candidacy papers to resolve Yes?
No. A public announcement alone suffices, even if the candidate later fails to appear on the ballot.
What is the deadline for announcing?
The announcement must occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
How are announcements verified?
The primary source is official statements from the candidate, but the market can also resolve on the basis of a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice