Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 17.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Latest German election humiliation puts Merz on borrowed time as CDU unrest grows — The Guardian
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor before 2027: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Friedrich Merz departs as Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026 at 14.5%. The contract covers any period out of office, however brief.
14.5%-4.0 pts 24h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | -4.0 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | 7.5% | -2.0 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | 1.1% | -1.8 |
The market considers Merz's departure as unlikely, with the complementary probability reflecting his continuation as Chancellor.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Latest German election humiliation puts Merz on borrowed time as CDU unrest grows — The Guardian
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 30.0% to 18.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: German elections under way which could decide fate of Chancellor Merz — BBC News
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 24.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Eight German state premiers back Merz amid speculation over future — BBC News
Show earlier updates
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 18.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 29.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 21.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 21.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability sits at 14.5%, within a range from 11.5% to 32.5% over the life of the contract. The contract settles as Yes if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor for any length of time before Jan 1, 2027. A formal announcement of his departure before that deadline triggers immediate resolution, even if the actual exit occurs later. The outcome is determined by official German government sources, though a consensus of credible news reports is accepted as well. The market reacts to developments that affect Merz's chances of leaving office. The settlement is triggered solely by the events defined in the rules, with the resolution source being German official channels or credible media.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution?
Any announcement of resignation, removal, or the actual cessation of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor for any period before the deadline.
Does the resignation have to take effect before the deadline?
No, the market resolves Yes upon the announcement, even if the effective date is later.
How is the outcome verified?
Primarily through official German government statements; a consensus of credible media reports is also sufficient.
What if Merz dies in office?
That would constitute a cessation, so the market would resolve Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice