Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 98.2% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
GA-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Democratic Party a 97.8% chance of holding Georgia's 4th congressional district. Voters decide in the November 2026 midterms.
97.8%+0.3 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $48.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat? | 97.8% | +0.3 |
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat? | 1.6% | -0.3 |
| Will C win the GA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the GA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the GA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the GA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the GA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the GA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic hold is the clear expectation, with all other outcomes — a Republican flip or any third-party or independent victory — trading as remote possibilities.
Context
Trajectory: The contract sits at 97.8%. Resolution: The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. Where possible, resolution relies on a consensus of credible election reporting; if the result is disputed, the Federal Election Commission's official tally serves as the final arbiter. What drives the probability: The most consequential event is the election itself on November 3, 2026. As that date approaches, the market will incorporate polling, fundraising, and campaign developments, but the ultimate settlement hinges on the official outcome confirmed by the FEC and major news organisations.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 House seat in the 2026 midterms. Party affiliation comes from the ballot, or if not listed, the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
When will the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the election once the result is clearly called. If the outcome is ambiguous, the market waits for the official Federal Election Commission results.
What happens if an independent or third-party candidate wins?
Such a candidate would be assigned to the Democratic or Republican party based on their expressed caucus intent. If they intend to caucus with neither, the market would resolve accordingly — though such scenarios are currently long shots.
What is the election date?
The U.S. midterm elections, including the GA-04 race, are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
The primary source is a consensus of credible news reporting. If that consensus is unclear, the market falls back to the official tally from the Federal Election Commission.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice