Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 59.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Georgia Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Democrats a 57.5% chance of winning the 2026 Georgia governor's race, leaving the contest finely balanced.
57.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $77.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 57.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 41.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Option I win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The race is seen as a tossup between the Democratic and Republican candidates, while all other outcomes remain long shots.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 59.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 59.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 59.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 59.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded within a range from 54.5% to 62.5% and currently sits at 57.5% 6 min ago. The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate qualifies as a party nominee if they secure that party's nomination; independent candidates are not captured by the Democratic or Republican contracts. The resolution relies on calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market settles once all three outlets agree on the winner, or on the official certification if they remain divided. The price responds to information that shifts expectations about the election outcome, such as candidate announcements and primary results. The definitive trigger for settlement is unanimous projections by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the official certification if their calls diverge.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election, once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner. If they do not agree, it settles on the official certification.
What qualifies a candidate as a party's nominee?
A candidate is considered a party's nominee if they are officially nominated by that party. Independents are not included under the Democrat or Republican contracts, even if they have past party affiliations.
What sources are used to determine the winner?
The market uses the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three must call the race for the same candidate; otherwise, the official certification is the fallback.
Can the market resolve before the election?
The market resolves when the resolution sources project a winner, which typically occurs on or after election day. It will not settle early based on polling or other indicators.
What happens if a candidate withdraws?
The market resolves on the election winner. If a candidate withdraws before the election and is not on the ballot, they cannot win. The contract remains open until the resolution conditions are met.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice