Georgia Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Democrats are strongly favored to hold the Georgia Senate seat in 2026, with markets pricing a win at 93.5%. The market settles on the official winner, including any run-off.
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $153.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 93.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 5.4% | 0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market views a Democratic hold as strongly favored, while a Republican victory is only an outside chance; all other outcomes are negligible.
Context
The probability of a Democratic victory now stands at 93.5%. The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Georgia Senate election, including any run-off. A candidate must be the nominee of a party to be considered as representing it, and independents are not grouped under the major-party labels. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, the market settles on the official certification of the result. The primary event is the 2026 midterm election. Its date is Nov 3, 2026. The market will react as the resolution sources—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—move closer to a consensus call, or if they fail to agree, as the official certification process plays out.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner. If they do not reach a consensus, it settles based on the official certification of the election result.
What happens in a run-off?
The market covers any run-off election that may occur; the winner of the run-off counts as the winner of the Senate seat for resolution purposes.
How are independent candidates treated?
Independent candidates are not included in the Democratic or Republican options, regardless of any party affiliation they may have. They fall into separate outcome categories.
What if a candidate changes party?
A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. The market’s party options reflect the nominee’s party label on the ballot.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice