HI-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
In the race for Hawaii’s 2nd congressional district, the Democratic Party is strongly favored to retain the seat, with markets pricing a victory at 94.5%%. The 2026 midterm election will settle the contract on Nov 4, 2026.
Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $68.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the HI-02 House seat? | 4.5% | -0.1 |
| Will B win the HI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the HI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the HI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the HI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the HI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the HI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is the strong favorite; all alternative outcomes are unlikely.
Context
Markets have consistently priced a Democratic hold in HI-02 as the clear expectation. The probability sits at 94.5%%, having traded within a range of over the period. The contract resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 seat. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, for candidates without a listed party, the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time the House elections are conclusively called. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting; if the outcome is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results from the United States Federal Election Commission. The settlement trigger is the 2026 midterm election on Nov 4, 2026, after which the market will resolve based on the consensus call or, if needed, the FEC certification.
FAQ
How is the winner's party determined?
The market resolves to the party listed on the ballot. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, it resolves to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are conclusively called.
What happens if news reports disagree on the outcome?
The market first seeks a consensus from credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, it turns to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does this market settle?
Settlement follows the conclusion of the 2026 midterm elections, once a winner is confirmed by either the consensus of reports or the FEC.
Does the market consider recounts or legal challenges?
The market resolves based on the result as indicated at the time the election is called. If official results later change, the resolution will follow the stated rules, which prioritize the consensus of credible reporting at that time, backed by FEC data if necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice