Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 28.0% to 43.0% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: With Fed rate hike all but assured, here's how markets might react — CoinDesk
How Many Fed Rate Hikes in 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets give a 47.5% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged through 2026, a close to a coin flip. The contract has traded between 28.0% and 51.5% over the past three months, reflecting shifting expectations.
47.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Updated · Volume $422.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | 47.5% | -2.0 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 44.5% | +2.5 |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 7.5% | +1.1 |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 3.6% | -1.4 |
| Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 0.8% | +0.4 |
| Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 0.4% | +0.1 |
Among specific scenarios, markets see 44.5% odds of two hikes (a close to a coin flip), while one hike is priced at 7.5% (also a unlikely). The remaining outcomes—including three or more hikes—are deep out of the money.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 45.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 38.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 38.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 42.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 34.5% to 43.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 45.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 46.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 38.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 41.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin analysts call a hold. Someone will be wrong. — CoinDesk
The Federal Reserve sets the target federal funds rate, and the number of rate hikes in a calendar year is a key focus for financial markets. This contract resolves based on the total count of 25-basis-point hikes enacted by the Fed during 2026, including any emergency moves outside regular FOMC meetings. A 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, and even a smaller move of 1–24 basis points is tallied as one hike. The market will stay open until December 31, 2026, to capture any late-year action. Currently, the probability that no hikes occur at all in 2026 sits at 47.5%, which is close to a coin flip. Volume stands at [[opt]]$422.4K[/opt]], signaling moderate audience engagement. The resolution source is the Federal Reserve's official calendar and rate announcements. The market can resolve early if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible—for instance, if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. This design keeps the contract fully defined throughout the year.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves based on the exact number of 25-basis-point interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2026, as announced in official FOMC statements. Emergency hikes outside scheduled meetings also count.
What counts as a single rate hike?
Any increase of 1–25 basis points counts as one hike. A 50-basis-point move is treated as two hikes, and so on. The tally totals all 25-bp increments across the year.
When does the market close?
The market remains open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, to account for any late-year rate decisions.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes. If the stated number of hikes becomes impossible—for example, if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question—the market will resolve to 'No' early.
Where does the resolution data come from?
The official Federal Reserve website provides the FOMC calendar and target federal funds rate changes, which serve as the resolution source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice