How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 at 43.5%.
43.5%-14.0 pts 24h
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | 43.5% | -14.0 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | 39.5% | +1.0 |
| Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | 4.3% | 0.0 |
| Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | 1.4% | +0.1 |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | 1.2% | +0.1 |
| Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | 0.7% | -0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.3% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 6 tracked outcomes and $1.2M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026, is priced at 43.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice