Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Republican Senators Retiring in 2026: Live Probabilities
Prediction markets have settled Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $144.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be 12 or more? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 10? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 9? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 6? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be less than 5? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 87.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 86.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 79.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 70.0% to 80.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 72.0% to 48.0% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 54.5% to 72.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 54.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice