How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8 at 42.7%.
42.7%+28.3 pts 24h
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8?
Updated · Volume $79.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8? | 42.7% | +28.3 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7? | 25.5% | -37.5 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11? | 15.8% | +6.6 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5? | 5.0% | -0.1 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be 12 or more? | 3.9% | +0.4 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 9? | 3.3% | +0.3 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 6? | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 10? | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be less than 5? | 1.5% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 92.8% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $79.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8, is priced at 42.7%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice