Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.4% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
ID-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican victory in ID-01 at 95.2%, making it near-certain to retain the seat.
95.2%+0.1 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the ID-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $48.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the ID-01 House seat? | 95.2% | +0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ID-01 House seat? | 4.7% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the ID-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the ID-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the ID-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the ID-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the ID-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the ID-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican win scenario dominates the market, while the remaining outcomes are long shots.
Context
The probability of a Republican win sits at 95.2% Over the last day it has moved +0.1 pts. The line has held steadily in the strong-favor range. The market settles based on which party wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or for unaffiliated candidates, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is called once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources; if there is ambiguity, the market relies on the official Federal Election Commission results. The main date that could shake this market is the election itself, Nov 3, 2026. Any major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected party switches in the district could prompt reassessment, but the resolution mechanics remain tied to the official outcome and the post-election consensus call.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winning party?
It looks at the ballot-listed affiliation of the winning candidate. If the candidate has no ballot-listed party, it uses the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, it falls back to the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. That may be days or weeks after the election date, depending on the reporting.
What happens if a candidate switches parties after the election?
The market uses the party affiliation as of the time the election is called. A later switch does not affect the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice