Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.5% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
IL-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party's chance of winning Illinois's 1st congressional district at 96.0%, with the party near-certain. Updated 9 min ago.
96.0%+0.3 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $54.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? | 96.0% | +0.3 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat? | 3.1% | -0.5 |
| Will another party win the IL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IL-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is the clear favorite, while the remaining scenarios are collectively regarded as remote possibilities.
Context
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.3% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
The contract trades at 96.0%. Volume has reached $54.8K. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate as listed on the ballot or otherwise identified by affiliation. If a candidate does not have a ballot-listed affiliation, the party is determined by the most recently expressed intent to caucus. When the outcome is ambiguous, resolution relies on the official vote count published by the Federal Election Commission. The main scheduled event is the November 3, 2026 election. The market officially expires on Nov 3, 2026. Any updates to the consensus of credible reporting or official FEC results would directly affect pricing.
FAQ
How is the winner determined?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-01 House seat, based on official election results or consensus reporting.
What if a candidate is not officially affiliated with a party?
The candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if not listed, by the most recent intent to caucus expressed publicly.
What sources are used for resolution?
The market primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If the outcome is ambiguous, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the election, once the result is conclusively called in line with the described criteria. The resolution date is Nov 3, 2026.
What happens in case of a dispute or recount?
The market will wait for conclusive resolution based on the specified sources, meaning it may not settle immediately on election night if the outcome is contested.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice