IL-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see the Democratic Party as near-certain to hold Illinois's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterms, pricing the outcome at 97.2% as of 12 min ago.
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $33.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat? | 97.2% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is near-certain to win; every other scenario remains a long shot.
Context
The contract settles according to the party that wins Illinois's 2nd district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by ballot listing or, if unaffiliated, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting; if that is unclear, it defaults to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission. The only thing that can settle this market is the certified election outcome. Until the polls close on Nov 4, 2026, the price may react to news about candidate filings, polling, and political developments. Final settlement will reflect the confirmed winner as reported by authoritative sources.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves after the November 2026 U.S. House elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting or official FEC results.
How is a candidate's party determined?
By the party listed on the candidate's ballot line. If no party is listed, the market uses the party they most recently said they would caucus with.
What if the election result is disputed?
If credible news sources disagree, the market falls back to the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Does early voting or polling affect the outcome before election day?
No, the contract only resolves once the final election result is clear and confirmed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice