Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 96.4% to 94.0% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
IL-03 House Election Winner: Current Probability
The Democratic Party is near-certain to win the IL-03 House seat, priced at 96.0%.
96.0%-0.9 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $51.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-03 House seat? | 96.0% | -0.9 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat? | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party's win is the dominant outcome; all other scenarios are collectively long shots.
Context
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.1% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 96.0%. Over the past day, it moved -0.9 pts. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Illinois's 3rd congressional district in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if they lack such an affiliation, their most recently expressed caucus intention governs. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official arbiter in cases of ambiguity. The approach of the election date Nov 3, 2026 and any official statements from the Federal Election Commission or shifts in the consensus of credible reporting could move the probability.
FAQ
How does this market determine a candidate's party?
It uses the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If none is listed, it uses the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, the market defers to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When will the market resolve?
Resolution will occur after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of the IL-03 district is clearly established by reporting or official results.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market waits for a consensus of credible reporting. If no clear consensus emerges, it turns to the FEC's official results as the final authority.
Does this market consider independent or third-party candidates?
Candidates are grouped by party affiliation. If a candidate is not affiliated with either major party, their caucus intent determines their party for resolution purposes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice