IL-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently price the Democratic Party's chance of winning Illinois's 4th congressional district in 2026 at 95.7%, making them near-certain to hold the seat.
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $61.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat? | 95.7% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat? | 4.4% | +0.1 |
| Will D win the IL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party, with near-certain odds of retaining the seat; all other outcomes are considered long shots.
Context
As of 13 min ago, the market probability for a Democratic victory stands at 95.7%. Total volume traded is $61.6K. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2026 general election for Illinois's 4th congressional district. Affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing; if no party is listed, it defaults to the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus. In case of conflicting reports, resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results serving as the final backstop. New information could shift the probability in either direction as the election approaches. The outcome becomes final on Nov 3, 2026, when the market will settle according to the reported result from consensus and the FEC.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 U.S. House election for Illinois's 4th congressional district.
How is a candidate’s party determined?
By the party listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, it is determined by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the election on November 3, 2026, once a winner is declared and a consensus is reached.
What if the election result is disputed?
Resolution will follow a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, the official results from the Federal Election Commission will be used.
What are the possible outcomes?
The market offers contracts on the Democratic Party winning, the Republican Party winning, or a candidate from another party winning.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice