Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.1% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
IL-06 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the Democratic Party’s hold on Illinois’ 6th congressional district at 96.0%. The contract settles based on the winner of the November 2026 midterm election.
96.0%-0.3 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?
Updated · Volume $43.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat? | 96.0% | -0.3 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat? | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IL-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is the clear expectation, while the field of alternative outcomes including a Republican victory remains a negligible group of long shots.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The market’s assessment has held firmly in the ‘near-certain’ range, currently at 96.0%. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none is listed, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission’s official results serving as the fallback if ambiguity persists. The contract hinges on the November 2026 midterm election. Until then, the probability reflects the market’s evolving view of the race, as filtered through the resolution sources: consensus reporting or, if ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission.
FAQ
What is the specific event this market predicts?
It predicts the party of the winning candidate for Illinois’ 6th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How is a candidate’s party determined?
It is based on the party listed on the ballot, or if no party is listed, the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, which take place on November 3, 2026, once the winner’s party is conclusively called.
Which sources confirm the outcome?
Credible reporting provides the primary resolution. If needed, the Federal Election Commission’s official results serve as the fallback.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice